2012 Predictions: The Cloud Comes of Age

In his fifth piece for Doyenz, IT Expert and Author Karl Palachuk predicts a year of maturity for cloud computing in 2012. 

As we wind down 2011 and look forward to 2012, there’s much to be positive about. Of course we all hope that the economy will continue to improve and that we can finally declare this recession to be over! But beyond mere dollars, there’s a lot to look forward to.

2012 will be a “Coming of Age” year for cloud services. 2011 has been a year of piling on: Every company with two electrons to rub together has tried to position themselves as a cloud service. At the same time, lots of people have jumped into cloud services, hoping to cash in on the frenzy.

Here are the changes I predict we'll see in the New Year:

1. The economy will improve slowly.

We all want the economy to suddenly be better, but that’s not going to happen. There won’t be a miraculous bubble that floods us all with cash. Here's why: First, the financial markets we rely on are still in the middle of their own crises. The recession is still settling into some countries. And the European financial situation won’t settle down for years.

Second, our housing crisis will linger for many years. All those foreclosed houses and bank-owned properties will keep downward pressure on the economy for a long time. That affects the financing industry, the building industry, the home improvement industry, and many others.

Third, as we look forward to an election that might bring some new blood to capitol buildings around the country, we need to keep in mind that the election doesn't take place until November 2012. Any new folks entering public office will do so in early 2013. And while positive attitude can do a great deal for the economy, it can’t get very far without changes in both Washington DC and the individual states.

2. “The Cloud” will become one option among many.

2012 will be a year of rational thinking and budgeting around technology. It will be the first year of significant IT spending since the recession began in 2008. And that fact will throw an inconvenient truth into the face of some cloud advocates: On-premise solutions will never die.

Everyone knows I’m a huge advocate of the cloud. But we’re installing real servers in client offices every month. We’re replacing old servers with new servers. We’re installing systems that integrate nicely with cloud services. But we’re installing major components on site.

Think about the small business that decided against buying a new server in 2009, and against migrating to cloud storage. That business owner avoided a huge capital outlay and two years of service payments. Yes, he has a really slow server. But it works, and he saved a lot of money during the recession when he needed it. He knows he was “right,” so you’re going to need a very convincing reason for him to move to new technology now.

3. Putting services where they belong will a huge growth industry.

Does everything belong in the cloud? No, obviously not. Some things belong on-site. Some belong in a co-location facility. And some belong in the cloud.

For example, we sell very small clients a “Cloud Five Pack” that puts their email into hosted Exchange mailboxes. This solution doesn't make economic sense for larger clients, so we sell them an on-premise email solution.

Similarly, on-site storage makes sense for many clients, with a backup to the cloud. And disaster recovery is best in a cloud service such as Doyenz. In fact, disaster recovery in the cloud is one of the few services for small business that was essentially impossible 10 years ago.

Here's the good news for computer consultants and managed service providers...

4. Consultants who know about both on-premise and cloud-based services will be in high demand.

Remember that businesses fear change. That’s why so many of them opted out of the cloud frenzy of the last two years. They are afraid to make a bad decision that will cost lots of money.

If you are knowledgeable about a wide variety of options, you can maintain your role as a consultant. If you only sell one solution, then clients either buy it or they don’t. If you can help them integrate on-site and cloud options, and help them put services where they belong, then you become a valuable member of their team.

Financial markets and real estate may not have a banner year in 2012, but IT consultants who understand the right way to integrate cloud technologies will have a very good year!

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Karl W. Palachuk is the Senior Systems Engineer at America's Tech Support. He is the author of nine books and the owner of multiple businesses. His books include Managed Services in a Month and The Network Documentation Workbook. Karl is a frequent trainer and speaker in the SMB Community. His popular blogs can be found at SmallBizThoughts.com and CloudServicesRoundtable.com.